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According to the World Bank, between 2010 and 2020, the number of working women in India fell from 26% to 19%. With the rise in infections, the bad situation has turned dire, with economists in Mumbai estimating that female employment will fall to 9% by 2022.

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Closing the gender employment gap – by as much as 58 percentage points – could increase India’s GDP by almost a third by 2050. According to a recent analysis by Bloomberg Economics, that’s nearly $6 trillion in constant US dollars.

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Sanchuri Bhuniya has been fighting his parents’ pleas to settle down for years. She wanted to travel and earn money, not become a housewife.

So in 2019, Bhuniya left her secluded village in eastern India. She took the train hundreds of miles south to the city of Bengaluru and found work in a garment factory, earning $120 a month. Work set her free. “I ran away,” she said. “It was the only way I could go.

This life of financial freedom suddenly ended with the arrival of Covid-19. In 2020, Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared a nationwide lockdown to contain the infection, shutting down almost all businesses. Within weeks, over 100 million Indians lost their jobs, including Bhunia, who was forced to return to her village and never found another stable employer.

As the world emerges from the pandemic, economists warn of alarming figures: failure to restore jobs for women, who are less likely to return to the labor market than men, could reduce global economic growth by trillions of dollars. The outlook is especially grim in developing countries such as India, where female labor force participation has fallen so dramatically that it is now in the same league as war-torn Yemen.

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This week’s episode of The Pay Check podcast explores how the coronavirus has accelerated an already worrying trend in the world’s second most populous country. According to the World Bank, between 2010 and 2020, the number of working women in India fell from 26% to 19%. With the rise in infections, the bad situation has turned dire, with economists in Mumbai estimating that female employment will fall to 9% by 2022.

“Women’s share of India’s workforce has fallen so dramatically that India is now in the same league as war-torn Yemen.”

This is bad news for India’s economy, which started slowing even before the pandemic. Modi prioritizes job creation, pushing the country towards the Amrit Kaal, a golden era of growth. But his administration made little progress in improving the prospects for working women. This is especially true in rural areas, where more than two-thirds of India’s 1.3 billion inhabitants live, where conservative attitudes prevail and where jobs have been disappearing for years. Despite the rapid economic development of the country, women found it difficult to move to work in urban centres.

Closing the gender employment gap – by as much as 58 percentage points – could increase India’s GDP by almost a third by 2050. According to a recent analysis by Bloomberg Economics, that’s nearly $6 trillion in constant US dollars. Failure to act threatens to derail the country in its quest to become a competitive producer in global markets. Although women make up 48% of India’s population, they contribute only about 17% of GDP compared to 40% in China.

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India is an extraordinary illustration of a global phenomenon. Around the world, women were more likely than men to lose their jobs during the pandemic, and their recovery was slower. According to Bloomberg Economics, policy changes to close the gender gap and increase the number of women in the workforce – such as better access to education, childcare and flexible working hours – would help add about $20 trillion to global GDP by 2050.

For workers like 23-year-old Bhunia, the pandemic has taken a heavy toll. After losing her job, she struggled for food in Bengaluru and eventually returned to the remote village of Patrapalli in Odisha. Bhuniya believes she won’t get another chance to leave. She no longer earns a steady income, but her family is concerned for her safety as a single woman living in a remote town.

“If I run away again, my mother will curse me,” said Bhunia. “Now there is nothing. My account is empty and there is little work in the village.

This story is spreading across India. During the pandemic, Rosa Abraham, a professor of economics at Azim Premji University in Bangalore, followed more than 20,000 people as they navigated the labor market. She found that women were several times more likely than men to lose their jobs after the first lockdown, and much less likely to return to work after lockdowns were lifted.

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Increased domestic responsibilities, lack of childcare opportunities after schools close, and an increase in marriage, which often limits women’s autonomy in India, help explain the difference in outcomes.

“When people face such a massive economic shock, they have a fallback,” Abraham said. “They can focus on different types of work. But for women, there is no such alternative. They cannot negotiate in the labor market as effectively as men.”

Dreams of freedom or a well-paying office job were replaced by what she called “hard work”, essentially unpaid work on the family farm or housekeeping. Already before the pandemic, Indian women were doing about 10 times more care work than men, about three times the global average.

“It’s unfortunate that the decision to work is often not in the hands of the woman herself,” Abraham said.

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The decline in professional activity is partly due to culture. As Indians became wealthier, families who could afford to keep women at home did so, believing it conferred social status. On the other hand, people at the lowest levels of society are still perceived as potential earners. But they tend to work undeclared or unpaid away from the formal economy. Their work is not included in official statistics.

In many villages, patriarchal values ​​remain unchanged and girls remain stigmatized. While sex-selective abortions are illegal, they are still common. Akhina Hansraj, senior program manager at the Akshara Centre, a Mumbai-based organization that advocates for gender equality, said Indian men often think “it’s not very masculine if their wife contributes to the family’s income”.

“They want to create this addiction,” Hansraj said. “People believe that if women are educated, they can work and become financially independent, and then they can disobey and show disrespect to the family.”

In India, where most weddings still take place, marriage is a problem. After the first blockade in 2020, the leading matrimonial portals in the country saw a sharp increase in new registrations. In some states, the number of child-teen marriages — many of which are illegal under Indian law — has increased by 80%, according to government figures.

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Madhu Sharma, a Hindi teacher at Pardada Pardadi Education Society, an all-girls school in the northern city of Anupshahr, said she could intervene in three child marriages a year. During the pandemic, when the campus was closed, their number tripled or quadrupled.

“Before Covid, children were always in touch with their teachers and also with me,” she said. “After Covid, when children had to stay at home, keeping in touch with them became a big challenge.”

Financial considerations often tipped the scales in favor of marriage. Social distancing and warnings against large gatherings meant that parents could hold small, cheaper ceremonies at home instead of the multi-day celebrations that are common even in the poorest sections of society. During the worst times of the pandemic, some families gave away their daughters because they couldn’t afford to feed another mouth.

For Sharma students, getting married before graduation can change the trajectory of their lives. In India, when a woman marries, she usually moves in with her husband and relatives. This can make it difficult to move out of isolated villages where selection controls are common and employment opportunities are scarce.

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“We’re trying to educate our students,” Sharma said. “We explain to them that if they study, they will be in a good place. If they do not, we will describe what their position will be. “The rest is up to you,” we tell them. You live as you want to create them.”

In 2015, Modi launched a campaign called “Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao”, which roughly translates to “Save our daughters, educate our daughters”. This is an initiative to stop girls from going to school and reduce sex-selective abortions. The government also tried to eradicate child marriage. Last year, the Modi administration approved a proposal to raise the legal marriage age for women from 18 to 21, the same as for men.

But in many villages, national laws are distant abstractions. Local customs are still established and enforced by the local panchayats, essentially a group of elders, almost all of whom are male. And so far, Modi’s campaign for India’s education